According to the latest report by Cyclone Warning Division of the India Meteorology Department, Delhi:(at 20.00Hrs IST)  

              Yesterday’s cyclonic storm “NIVAR” over southwest Bay of Bengal (BoB) moved west-northwestwards and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm in the midnight of yesterday, the 24th November, 2020. Moving further northwestwards, it further intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm in the afternoon (1430 hours IST) of today, the 25th November, 2020 and lay centered over southwest BoB about 90 km east-southeast of Cuddalore, about 150 km east southeast of Puducherry and 220 km south southeast of Chennai.

              It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during mid-night of 25^th and early hours of 26^th November 2020 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph.

              The Cyclone is being monitored by Doppler Weather Radar at Chennai, Karaikal and Sriharikota.

Forecast track and intensity are given below:

Date/Time(IST)

Position

(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Maximum sustained surface 

wind speed (Kmph)

Category of cyclonic disturbance

25.11.20/1430

11.2/81.0

115-125 gusting to 140

25.11.20/1730

11.5/80.6

120-130 gusting to 145

25.11.20/2330

12.0/80.0

120-130 gusting to 145

26.11.20/0530

12.5/79.4

90-100 gusting to 110

26.11.20/1130

13.0/79.0

55-65 gusting to 75

26.11.20/2330

13.7/78.5

35-45 gusting to 55

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity very likely over coastal and north interior Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during 25^th and 26^th November and southeast Telangana during 26^th November, 2020. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall activity also very likely over coastal & north interior Tamilnadu & Puducherry (Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Chennai, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Myladuthirai, Ariyalur, Perambalur, Kallakurchi, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Puducherry and Karaikal districts) during 25^th; over Nellore and Chittoor districts of Andhra Pradesh on 25^th and over Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore districts of Tamilnadu; Chittoor, Kurnool, Prakasam and Cuddappa districts of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southeast Telangana on 26th November, 2020.

(ii) Wind warning

• Gale wind speed reaching 115-125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph is prevailing over Southwest Bay of Bengal. It would further increase becoming 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph from evening of 25^th to early hours of 26^th November.
• Gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph is prevailing along & off north Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry Karaikal coast and squally wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph along and off south Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast and over Gulf of Mannar. It will gradually increase and become gale wind speed reaching 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph along & off coastal districts of north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, Puducherry, Villupuram & Chengalpattu) and80-90 gusting to 100 kmph very likely over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallur districts during night of 25^th to early hrs of 26^th November, 2020.

• Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph very likely over adjoining  westcentral Bay of Bengal and along & off South Andhra Pradesh (Nellore & Chittoor districts), Gulf of Mannar and along and off south coastal districts of Tamil Nadu during night of 25^thto early hrs of 26^thNovember, 2020.

(iii) Sea condition

• Sea condition is very high over Southwest Bay of Bengal and very rough to high along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south Andhra Pradesh coasts and over Gulf of Mannar. It wouldgradually become phenomenal over Southwest Bay of Bengal and along & off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts during afternoon of 25^thto early hrs of 26^thNovember, 2020.

(iv)  Strom Surge Warning

• Tidal wave of about 1-1.5m height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas of north coastal districts of Tamilnadu & Puducherry near the place of landfall.

(v) (a) Damage expected over Nagapattinam,  Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, , Villupuram & Chengalpattu districts of Tamilnadu and Karaikal & Puducherry:

• Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses.  Some damage to old pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
• Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
• Major damage to Kutcha and and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.  Disruption of railways, overhead powerlines and signalling systems.
• Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.
• Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
• Visibility severely affected.

(b)  Damage expected over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallaur districts of Tamilnadu and adjoining Andhra Pradesh:

• Damage to thatched houses/ huts with possibility of roof tops being blown off and unattached metal sheets may fly.
• Damage to power and communication lines.
• Damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of trees. Severe damage to banana and papaya trees, horticulture and crops & orchards. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
• Major damage to coastal crops. Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vi) Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:

• Total suspension of fishing operations.
• Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places.
• People in affected areas to remain in safe places and indoors.
• Judicious regulation of rail, road and air traffic.
• Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.

(vii) POST LANDFALLOUTLOOK FOR INTERIOR DISTRICTS (RANIPET, TIRUVANNAMALAI, TIRUPATTUR, VELLORE AND CHITTOOR)

1. Even after landfall, the system is likely to maintain its cyclone intensity for about 6 hours and weaken gradually.
2. Under its influence rainfall at most/many places with heavy to very heavy  falls  at a  few places with isolated extremely heavy falls likely to occur over  Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore districts of Tamilnadu and Chittoor, Kurnool, Prakasam; Cuddappa districts of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southeast Telangana on 26.th Nov.  Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated paces likely over remaining districts of north interior Tamilnadu, south Andhra Pradesh and southeast Telangana.
3. Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph very likely to prevail over interior districts (Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore) of Tamilnadu and Chittoor district of Andhra Pradesh during 26th Nov early morning to forenoon.

4. Damage expected over Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore districts of Tamilnadu and Chittoor, Kurnool, Prakasam and Cuddappa districts of Andhra Pradesh:

• Partial damage to thatched houses/ huts with possibility of roof tops being blown off and unattached metal sheets may fly.
• Partial damage to power and communication lines.
• Damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of small trees. Damage to banana and papaya trees, horticulture and crops & orchards.

5. People are advised to remain indoors/in safe places and cooperate with state  government  officials  and  disaster  management  agencies.

The system is under continuous surveillance and the concerned state governments are being informed regularly.

For details in Graphics, Please Click here.

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For details kindly visit www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in , www.mausam.imd.gov.in

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NB/KGS/(IMD inputs)