There is no officially defined category known as a "Super El Nino" by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) or the India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry. Operationally, El Nino events are generally classified as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong based on the magnitude of sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean. IMD has predicted the development of El Nino conditions during the 2026 southwest monsoon season. El Nino conditions were weak during June 2026 and intensified to moderate levels in July 2026.

El Nino is likely to strengthen further during the October–December 2026 season and may reach a very strong category. However, its exact intensity and impacts over the Indian region depend on the evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere conditions, of which El Nino is one factor. IMD continuously monitors the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and issues regular seasonal and monthly forecasts and advisories.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry, continuously monitors the evolution of El Nino and other climate drivers and issues regular seasonal/monthly forecasts, extended-range forecasts, and weather advisories to the Central and State Governments and other stakeholders. IMD issues Impact-Based Forecasts (IBFs) and risk-based warnings daily, valid for the next 7 days through multiple communication channels for use by disaster management authorities, State Governments, district administrations, and other stakeholders to support preparedness and response measures.

This information was given by the Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra Singh in a written reply in Rajya Sabha today.

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NKR/JKP