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Press Information Bureau
Government of India
Ministry of Earth Science
12 NOV 2020 8:29PM by PIB Delhi
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry &Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Lakshadweep area during the week

According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department:

Significant Features of current week ended on 11 November, 2020

  • The weak phase of northeast monsoon continued till 10th November. It rectified since 11th November in association with an active easterly wave approached South India.
  • The easterly wave caused scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over southeast Peninsular India towards the end of the week.
  • During the week rainfall activity was below normal over all the homogeneous regions of the country.

Rainfall for week 1: (12 to 18 November, 2020)

  • Under the influence of a trough in easterly at lower tropospheric levels extending from Sri Lanka coast to southwest Bay of Bengal off north Tamilnadu Coast and an embedded cyclonic circulation over Sri Lanka and another fresh easterly wave spell from 14 November, 2020:
  1. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry &Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Lakshadweep area during the week.
  2. Isolated heavy rain also very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry &Karaikal and Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the week (Annexure III).

A fresh Western Disturbance very likely affects northwest India during 13th-16th November. Due to the active easterly wave & an anti-cyclonic circulation over northeast Madhya Pradesh, the easterly winds are likely to interact with the Western Disturbance over the plains of northwest India & adjoining central India. As a result of these systems:

  1. Scattered to fairly widespread precipitation very likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh; Isolated rainfall over Uttarakhand on 15th & 16th November, over plains of northwest India and adjoining central India on 15th November, 2020.
  2. Isolated heavy falls also very likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad on 14th & 15th November, 2020.
  3. Light rainfall activity very likely over plains of northwest India and Madhya Pradesh on 15th & 16th November, 2020 (Annexure III).

Cumulatively, above normal rainfall very likely over southeast Peninsular India and Western Himalayan Region; Below normal or no rainfall very likely over remaining parts of the country (Annexure IV).

Rainfall for week 2: (19 to 25 November, 2020)

  • Rainfall activity likely to decrease over south Peninsular India and is likely to be below normal.
  • Due to another Western Disturbance over the region, normal to above normal rainfall likely over Western Himalayan Region;
  • Below normal or no rainfall very likely over remaining parts of the country (Annexure IV).

Minimum Temperature for week 1 & 2: (12 to 25 November, 2020)

  • The trend of decreasing minimum temperatures over the plains of northwest India continued till 10th November with below normal temperatures by about 3-4°C. It reversed with the prevailing increasing trend from 11th November in association with active easterlies in the country. The rising trend would continue over plains of northwest India & central India till 15th November. Thereafter, minimum temperatures fall over the above region by 2-4°C due to passage of Western Disturbance and weakening of easterlies.
  • Overall minimum temperatures are very likely to be below normal by 2-4°C over most parts of northwest India, above normal by 2° to 3°C over Uttar Pradesh & adjoining area of Madhya Pradesh and parts of south Peninsular India during week 1 (Annexure V).
  • It is very likely to decrease further during week 2 with below normal temperature over most parts of the country (Annexure V).

Cyclogenesis:

· No cyclogenesis (formation of Depression and above) likely over the north Indian Ocean during week 1.

· There exists a ‘low’ probability for cyclogenesis over south Bay of Bengal and also over south Arabian Sea during the later part of week 2.

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NB/KGS/(IMD Release)