The Central Statistics
Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released
the revised estimates of national income for the financial year 2010-11 and the
quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter
(January-March) of 2010-11, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices.
2. The CSO has also
released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of Expenditure
components of the GDP in current and constant (2004-05) prices, namely the
private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption
expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and
net exports.
I REVISED ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2010-11
3. The advance estimates of
national income for the year 2010-11 were released on 7th February,
2011. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of
agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key
sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking
and insurance and government expenditure.
4. The salient features of
these estimates are detailed below:
(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05)
prices
Gross Domestic Product
5. GDP at factor cost at
constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2010-11 is now estimated at Rs. 48,77,842
crore (as against Rs. 48,79,232 crore estimated earlier on 7th
February, 2011), showing a growth rate of 8.5 per cent (as against 8.6 per cent
in the Advance Estimates) over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2009-10
of Rs. 44, 93,743 crore, released on
31th January 2011. The downward revision in the GDP growth rate
is mainly on account of lower performance in ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘manufacturing’
and ‘trade, hotels, transport, and communication’ and ‘financing, insurance, real
estate & business services’ than anticipated.
6. In the agriculture sector, the third
advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture
showed an upward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in the production
of wheat (84.27 million Tonnes from 81.47 million Tonnes), pulses (17.29
million Tonnes from 16.51 million Tonnes), oilseeds (302.51 lakh Tonnes from
278.48 lakh Tonnes) and sugarcane (340.54 million Tonnes from 336.70 million Tonnes)
during 2010-11. Due to this upward
revision in the production, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector in 2010-11
has shown a growth rate of 6.6 per cent, as against the growth rate of 5.4 per
cent in the Advance estimates.
7. In the case of ‘mining
and quarrying’, the Index of Industrial Production of Mining (IIP-Mining)
registered a growth rate of 5.9 per cent during 2010-11, as against the growth
rate of 8.0 per cent during April-November,
2010, which was used in the Advance Estimates.
Due to this decrease in the IIP-Mining, the growth rate in GDP is now
estimated at 5.8 per cent, as against the advance estimate growth rate of 6.2
per cent.
8. Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing
registered a growth rate of 8.1 per cent during 2010-11, as against the growth rate
of 10 per cent during April-November, 2010.
Due to this decrease in the IIP, the growth rate in GDP of
‘manufacturing’ sector is now estimated at 8.3 per cent, as against the Advance
estimate growth rate of 8.8 per cent.
9. The sector 'community,
social and personal services' has shown a rise in growth rate to 7.0 per cent
in the revised estimates, as against the growth rate of 5.7 per cent in the
advance estimates, mainly due to rise in total expenditure of Central Government
than anticipated (during April-December, 2010, the total expenditure of Central
Government showed an increase of 11.2 per cent over the corresponding period of
previous year which was extrapolated in the advance estimates, whereas the RE, 2010-11
showed a rise of 19.4 per cent during 2010-11).
10. Growth rates in various
sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (6.6 per
cent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (5.8 per
cent), ‘manufacturing’ (8.3 per cent), ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ (5.7
per cent) ‘construction’ (8.1 per cent), 'trade, hotels, transport and
communication' (10.3 per cent), 'financing, insurance, real estate and business
services' (9.9 per cent), and 'community, social and personal services' (7.0
per cent).
Gross National Income
11. The Gross National Income
(GNI) at factor cost at 2004-05 prices is now estimated at Rs. 48,34,759 crore
(as compared to Rs. 48,44,971 crore estimated on 7th February 2011),
during 2010-11, as against the previous year’s Quick Estimate of Rs. 44,64,854 crore.
In terms of growth rates, the gross national
income is estimated to have risen by 8.3 per cent during 2010-11, in comparison
to the growth rate of 7.9 per cent in 2009-10.
Per Capita Net National Income
12. The per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices)
during 2010-11 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs. 35,917 (as against
Rs. 36,003 estimated on 7th February, 2011), as compared to the
Quick Estimates for the year 2009-10 of Rs. 33,731. The growth rate in per
capita income is estimated at 6.5 per cent during 2010-11 as against 6.1 per
cent during 2009-10.
(b) Estimates at current
prices
Gross Domestic Product
13. GDP at factor cost at current
prices in the year 2010-11 is estimated at Rs. 73,06,990 crore, showing a
growth rate of 19.1 per cent over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2009-10
of Rs. 61,33,230 crore, released on 31th January 2011.
Gross National Income
14. The GNI at factor cost at
current prices is now estimated at Rs. 72,41,026 crore during 2010-11, as
compared to Rs. 60,95,230 crore during 2009-10, showing a rise of 18.8 per cent.
Per Capita Net National Income
15. The per capita income at current prices during 2010-11 is estimated to have
attained a level of Rs. 54,835 as compared to the Quick Estimates for the year 2009-10
of Rs. 46,492, showing a rise of 17.9 per cent.
II ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2010-11
16. Alongwith the Revised
Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the estimates
of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2004-05) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the
data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling
GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise
trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly
accounts of central government. As
various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely,
consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market
prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices
only.
Private
Final Consumption Expenditure
17. Private Final Consumption
Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 45,02,974 crore in 2010-11
as against Rs. 37,82,013 crore in 2009-10. At constant (2004-05) prices, the
PFCE is estimated at Rs. 30,91,328 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 28,46,410 crore
in 2009-10. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and
constant (2004-05) prices during 2010-11 are estimated at 57.2 per cent and 58.3
per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.7 per cent and
58.5 per cent, respectively in 2009-10.
Government
Final Consumption Expenditure
18. Government Final
Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 9,06,665
crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 7,85,443 crore in 2009-10. At constant (2004-05)
prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 5,91,761 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 5,64,835
crore in 2009-10. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at
current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2010-11 are estimated at 11.5 per
cent and 11.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 12.0
per cent and 11.6 per cent, respectively in 2009-10.
Gross
Fixed Capital Formation
19. Gross Fixed Capital
Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 23,22,097 crore in 2010-11
as against Rs. 20,16,186 crore in 2009-10. At constant (2004-05) prices, the
GFCF is estimated at Rs. 16,93,284 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 15,59,126 crore
in 2009-10. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and
constant (2004-05) prices during 2010-11 are estimated at 29.5 per cent and 32.0
per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.8 per cent and
32.0 per cent, respectively in 2009-10.
The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2010-11
are estimated at 3.3 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively.
20. The discrepancies at current and constant
(2004-05) prices during 2010-11 are estimated at (-) 0.2 per cent and (-) 1.5
per cent, respectively of the GDP at market prices, as against the
corresponding rate of (-) 0.3 per cent each in 2009-10.
21. Estimates of gross/net
national income and per capita income, along with GDP at factor cost by kind of
economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11 at constant (2004-05)
and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 6.
II QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2010-11
(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05)
prices
22. The four quarters of a
financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05)
prices in Q4 of 2010-11 is estimated at Rs. 13,17,554 crore, as against Rs. 12,22,573 crore in Q4 of 2009-10, showing
a growth rate of 7.8 per cent. The sectors which registered significant growth
rates in Q4 of 2010-11 over Q4 of 2009-10 are ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ at 7.5 per cent ‘electricity, gas and water
supply’ at 7.8 per cent, ‘construction’ at 8.2 per cent, 'trade, hotels,
transport and communication' at 9.3 per cent, and 'financing, insurance, real
estate and business services' at 9.0 per cent.
23. The
PFCE and GFCF at constant (2004-05) market prices in Q4 of 2010-11 are
estimated at Rs. 7,72,416 crore and Rs. 4,72,304 crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of
GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2010-11 were 52.6 per cent and 32.1 per cent,
respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 52.4 per cent and 34.5 per
cent, respectively in Q4 of 2009-10.
(b) Estimates at current
prices
24. GDP at factor cost at
current prices in Q4 of 2010-11 is estimated at Rs. 20,12,528 crore, as against
Rs. 17,16,675 crore in Q4 of 2009-10, showing a rise of 17.2 per
cent.
25. The PFCE and GFCF at
current market prices in Q4 of 2010-11 are estimated at Rs. 11,70,430 crore and
Rs. 6,58,212 crore, respectively. The
rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP at market prices
in Q4 of 2010-11 are estimated at 52.6 per cent and 29.6 per cent,
respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 53.2 per cent and 32.7 per
cent, respectively in Q4 of 2009-10.
26. Estimates
of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP
for the four quarters of 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11 at constant (2004-05) and
current prices, are given in Statements 7 to 10.
27. The
next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter April-June, 2011 (Q1 of
2011-12) will be on 30.08.2011.
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