Emission of green house gases by India is very low
INDIA’S NEGOTIATING POSITION IN VARIOUS CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED FORA STRENGTHENED
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE MAY ADVERSELY AFFECT WEATHER, RIVER BASINS, RAINFALL, COASTAL AREAS, ECOSYSTEMS, FORESTRY IN INDIA
The emission of green house gases by India is very low, both in terms of per capita as well as aggregate emissions, amounting to about 3 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions.
This was stated by the Minister for Environment & Forests, Thiru A. Raja, while releasing India’s Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change today at Chennai. The Minister said that the information contained in the national communication would further strengthen our negotiating position in various climate change related fora.
The aggregate greenhouse gas emissions from human activities in India in 1994 amounted to 793 million tons of carbon dioxide; 18 million tons of methane and 0.178 million tons of nitrous oxide; and constitute about 3 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. The contributions of the USA, Japan, Germany and UK to the global emissions were 20%, 5%, 4% and 2% respectively.
However, The National Communication points out that India’s per capita CO2 emissions were only 0.87 tons of CO2, amounting to 4% of US per capita emissions, 8% of Germany, 9% of UK, 10% of Japan and 23% of Global average.
The 1994 inventory of greenhouse gases for India provides a comprehensive estimate of emissions by sources and removals by sinks of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide not controlled by the Montreal Protocol.
A preliminary assessment of vulnerability and adaptation needs due to climate change in key sectors such as water, agriculture, forestry, ecosystems, coastal zones, health, energy and infrastructure has been undertaken in accordance with the provisions of the Convention, which enjoins upon all Parties to communicate these elements of information for the base year 1994 to the Conference of Parties – the supreme body of the Convention.
The initial analysis of the projected climate change scenarios for India has indicated that climate change may have adverse effects in terms of severity of droughts and intensity of floods in various parts of the country. Forestry in India seem to be highly vulnerable to the projected change in climate. Coastal areas, natural eco-systems, hydrological cycle and infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change in varying degrees.
Stating that India has reasons to be concerned about the impacts of climate change, the National Communication points out that its large population depends on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and forestry for livelihoods. Any adverse impact on water availability due to recession of glaciers, decrease in rainfall and increased flooding in certain pockets would threaten food security, cause degradation of natural ecosystems including species that sustain the livelihoods of rural households, and adversely impact the coastal system due to sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme events.
The projected climate change scenario for India indicates that while annual average monsoon rainfall at the all-India level for the past one hundred years has been without any trend and variations have been random in nature, increase in monsoon seasonal rainfall have been recorded along the west coast, north Andhra Pradesh and north-west India (+10 to +12% of normal/100 years) while decreasing trends have been observed over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas, north-east India and parts of Gujarat and Kerala (-6 to –8% of normal/100 years). Climate projections indicate increases in both maximum as well as minimum temperatures over southern region, the maximum temperature is projected to increase by 2 to 4 0C during the 2050s. In the northern region the increase in maximum temperature may exceed 4 0C.
Preliminary assessments have revealed that the severity of droughts and intensity of floods in various parts of India is likely to increase. River basins of Sabarmati and Luni, which occupy about one quarter of the area of Gujarat and 60 percent of the area of Rajasthan, are likely to experience acute water scarce conditions. River basins of Mahi, Pennar, Sabarmati and Tapi are likely to experience constant water scarcity and shortage. River basis of the Cauvery, Ganga, Narmada and Krishna are likely to experience seasonal or regular water stressed conditions. River basins of the Godavari, Brahmani and Mahanadi are projected to experience water shortage only in a few locations.
Preliminary assessments for India further show shifts in forest boundary, changes in species-assemblage or forest types, changes in net primary productivity, possible forest degradation in the transient phase and potential loss or change in biodiversity. About 70% of the vegetation in India is likely to find itself less than optimally adapted to its existing location, making it more vulnerable to adverse climatic conditions as well as to the increased biotic stresses. Biodiversity is also likely to be adversely impacted. These impacts on forests will have adverse socio-economic implications for forest dependent communities and the national economy, it adds.
Natural ecosystems such as grasslands, mangroves and coral reefs are also likely to be affected by climate change. Sea level rise would submerge mangroves as well as increase the salinity of wetlands. This would favour mangrove plants that tolerate higher salinity. Increased snowmelt in the western Himalayas could bring larger quantities of fresh water into the Gangetic delta and would have significant consequences for the composition of the Sundarbans mangroves, favoring mangrove species that have relatively lower tolerance to salinity.
The key climate-related risks in the coastal zone include tropical cyclones, sea-level rise and changes in temperature and precipitation. A rise in sea level is likely to have significant implications on the coastal population and agricultural performance of India. A one-metre sea-level rise is projected to displace approximately 7.1 million people in India and about 5,764 square kilometers of land area will be lost, along with 4,200 km of roads.
Climate change can affect both average conditions and the probability of extreme events, temperatures, precipitation patterns, water availability, flooding and water logging, vegetation growth, land slides and land erosion in the medium and long-run which may have serious impacts on infrastructure. These are likely to lead to huge monetary losses, if not taken into consideration while planning. Studies indicate that increased temperatures would increase space-cooling requirements while enhanced ground water demand would increase water pumping requirements. These will enhance the electricity demand and add costs to the consumers for maintaining their lifestyles, as well as to the electricity production system.
Government initiatives such as the diffusion of renewable energy technologies, joint forest management, water resource management, agricultural extension services, micro financing, web-enabled services for farmers and rural areas, petroleum conservation research and consumer awareness, energy parks for demonstration of clean energy technologies, establishment of the technology information, forecasting and assessment council, environmental education in schools and higher education, represent a broad spectrum of initiatives for education, training and public awareness on climate and related issues.
India is a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was adopted in 1992 and entered into force on March 21st, 1994. The Convention enjoins upon the Parties to protect the climate system on the basis of equity and in accordance with their "common but differentiated responsibilities" and respective capabilities.
The objective of the Convention is to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system within a time frame sufficient to allow the ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
(Release ID :2023)